Splitting The Vote Is Not An Issue
Our campaign has heard from a number of people concerned about the conservative vote being split by my running in Edmonton Sherwood Park. I will answer this concern with some simple math.
In the 2006 federal election, for example, the successful Conservative candidate drew 64 per cent of the vote, with the Liberals and New Democrats each taking 14.5 per cent and the Greens coming in at 7.2 per cent.
Conservative voters are unlikely to be attracted away to one of the other major parties in any kind of significant numbers and it is reasonable to expect that the voter turn out will be roughly the same as it was in 2006.
All things being equal, even if the previous conservative vote was divided almost equally between me and the Conservative party’s new candidate, both of us would have 32 per cent. If Liberals, New Democrats and Greens maintain the same level of support, none of the three remaining parties would have enough to “sneak up the middle” and take the seat from a conservative candidate.